It would not be far from accurate to say that approximately half the current Democratic primary voters want neither Clinton nor Obama.  In fact in recent polls, most of those who voted for Obama said they would not vote for Clinton if she became the Democratic nominee and vice versa.  It should also be clear that from the beginning in this tight race former Senator John Edwards consistently received a chunk of Democratic votes – voters who consistently indicated that they wanted neither Clinton nor Obama as their candidate.

Clinton’s campaign complete disintegration roughly paralleled McCain becoming the likely choice as the Republican nominee for President.  After Florida, there seemed to be no where Clinton could go to win (and few places McCain could lose).  In talking with many Democrats, it has been clear that there ultimate choice is going to be McCain.  They are all voting in the Democratic primary, as they always have, but when it comes to the “real” election; they will vote for McCain.  It is true that there are a variety of reasons why these individuals will vote for either Clinton or Obama in the primary, while not considering either of them to be of presidential quality.  The November General Election I project will parallel the 1972 Nixon/McGovern race with no Watergate.

Nationally, according to Gallup’s daily tracking polls, Obama passed Clinton in national popularity on February 10 to 11.  That was exactly two days after McCain hit his highest popularity rating on February 9-10.  It has been down hill in national popularity for Clinton ever since.  She and Obama have been essentially trading places; while, McCain has kept his level of popularity nationally statistically steady.

Since the second week of February this primary season has essentially been a three person race for the Presidency, and the winner of the Republican primary will become president.  Although the turnout at the Democratic primaries has been significantly higher than the Republican turnout this has historically generally been the case.  With the general election over 100 million people will vote.  Over half will have not voted in the primaries and most of whom consider themselves independents or either center Democrats or Republicans (i.e. switchable).  The hard-core Democrats, especially African-Americans and Hispanics, have already voted in the primary.  Most will vote for Hillary or Barak whoever is nominated; but, the middle of the road Democrats do not want Hillary or Barak.  They also do not want to “look” sexist or racist in their own eyes.  This will have being taken care of by their primary vote; while they know full well that McCain is waiting in the wings for the real election.

A large part of the Primary Democratic vote is a negative one.  In spite of the Obama hype, very few voter choices are positively oriented toward the candidates.  In discussions with many Democrats their reason for voting is their historical opportunity to vote for a serious women or Black contender for the Presidency.  There is a real hatred for Hilary and the Clintons, which is leading many Democrats to vote to Obama while holding their noses.  This has become particularly true of working class Democrats who have now moved to voting for Obama; but will never support him in the general election.  They moved during the past two weeks from Clinton to Obama because they know they can vote for McCain in the general election.   The gender gap continues to favor Obama in the primary with males of all races.  These are the very voters who will vote for McCain.

One just needs to keep in mind that Obama’s main support began with predominantly the limousine liberal vote, the majority but not all of the African-American vote, and the male sexist vote (women voted for Hillary; men voted for Barak).

Hillary is dropping like a rock in water, almost in an unprecedented way.  This usually only happens if there is some major scandal; but there have been none.  Hillary will likely lose the Wisconsin primary today and new polls are showing here in a dead heat in Texas (a 20 point drop in one week).  The remaining primary states are going to be so close that even if Hilary wins, she will lose in the overall delegate race.  This is the truly unique event of the February, 2008 Presidential primary season.

What is intriguing is that in every case Clinton’s 15+ point lead in the polls evaporates just before the election in that state.  This is unlikely to be a consequence of the Democratic primary voters’ “re-evaluating” the candidates.  From a polling point of view, there is nothing new for the voters to know about the Democratic candidates.  Further, nothing happens “on the ground” to change these patterns; they just change.  It is as though the Democratic voters for some “mystical” reason are deciding to vote for Obama.

That mystical reason is Senator John McCain as a safe choice for everyone in the general election.  Half of all primary voters who think the Iraq war is a mistake still voted for Senator McCain when there were multiple choices.  It can even be seen in the African-American vote, would rather have character than make “so called media history.”  In New York State primary, 8% of all Republican primary voters were African-American and they voted overwhelmingly for McCain.  African-Americans make up 14% of the overall population of the Empire State.  Antidotal input from many African-Americans in my neck of the woods, which is a stone’s throw from Obama home (literally), indicates overwhelmingly that many recognize the dilemma but know that Obama’s oratory is vacuous.  Who would have thought or projected?

 Ironically, Senator McCain is a true American hero in the tradition of President John F. Kennedy (remember PT Boat 109) and that is not only reflective of their rare character similarities but also of similar policy values.  They are both pro-American warriors.