Senator Barack Obama was finally in Northwest Indiana (NWI) today, speaking in Munster, Indiana, and nobody noticed. It was amazing how little attention or care the people of NWI gave to the fact that Obama was finally here. The event was truly elitist. It was by invitation only and very controlled and kept to a small audience. He spoke in a town, Munster, which has already decided its vote. More importantly it was a no union, no Hispanic, and no African-American town. He paid no attention to any group and none paid any attention to him. What is interesting is that Munster is a 100% small Republican town in the middle of Lake County which is almost 100% Democratic. Citizens in Munster will vote in the Democratic primary, because that is where the fun is, but they will vote for Hillary Clinton not Barack Obama. But in this town, Barack Obama was safe because everyone is polite and frankly generally does not give a damn about his candidacy.
The latest poll, from today, shows that Obama is trailing Clinton by 3 % in Lake County and she has the rest of the State.
The largest Democratic vote in Indiana is in Marion County, i.e. Indianapolis, and here in NWI, in particular Lake County. For Democrats, the primary is won or lost in these two counties. The central question being asked is where (and why) is Senator Barack Obama hiding?
The reality of the demographics of Indiana is that they favor traditional Democratic candidates during the primary season. One of the sad realities about the State of Indiana is that it has one of the lowest rate, forty-sixth in the Country, of individuals with a college education. There is no question that this is quickly becoming Hillary Clinton land.
Lake County is the most tribal political area in the Country, even surpassing Chicago. Most of the white voters in the NWI are the gun totting, religion loving, union workers that Obama detests. He has already indicated his distaste by characterizing them as "bitter." They are going to be bitter when they vote against him because what really makes them exceptionally bitter is his "spiritual mentor.”
One thing that is true in Lake County that was not the case in Pennsylvania is that people here in fact experience Rev. Jeremiah Wright's ideology of America for many years, before Obama ever became a candidate. This is not only the case because of NWI's proximity to South Chicago, but, it is also the ideology that is generally promoted in Gary, and a few other areas.
The only group that will vote un-equivocally for Senator Obama is the African-Americans in Gary and Indianapolis. That is a given (although since the embarrassment with Wright, I have been hearing grumbling from African-Americans that Obama is just not ready for prime time). Nonetheless, I believe that in the end 85% of their vote will go to Obama even if he never shows up here. But that will be the majority of his voters; but they only make up about 9% of the overall population. Gary as usual will fudge the numbers up; but not enough to make a real difference.
Lake County has the highest concentration of Hispanics in Indiana. Although their turnout generally is low, it will probably be relatively good for this primary because there is a real effort to energize that Hispanic base, especially by Senator Clinton. Hispanics generally have let me know that they are supporting Hillary Clinton because of traditional tribal perceptions. When Blacks have won positions of power politically in Lake County the perception of Hispanic is that they have had no interest in Hispanic issues, only in getting their vote. This has been a relatively accurate perception on the part of Hispanics and it is being transferred onto Barack Obama as a negative. (This is a national problem for Obama. I heard the same complaints from Hispanics in Texas before that primary when they explained their support for Hillary Clinton.)
On top of all this is the growing perception that Senator Obama's campaign is over. The "spiritual adviser" of twenty years, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, has shown the reality of what Obama had to commit to so as to get elected in the City of Chicago. The perceptions and values presented by Wright are what is taught everyday in the schools of Gary. This is not anything new for those of us who live in Lake County and there is nothing that Obama can say to put him outside this belief system that is not going to be strictly opportunistic.
Especially in NWI and Lake County, no one believes that he (or Oprah for that matter) did not know about Wright's ideas. Even if they continue to support Obama, they just do not find it a credible argument that is believed in the African-American community that Obama did not know.
Obama, as opposed to Clinton, has had to spend all of his time shoring up his national campaign. The only thing he has going for him is that the Rev. Jeremiah Wright decided to wait until April/May to go public. If this had happened in February, there would not be an Obama campaign.
Lake County, Indiana, is one of the most de facto segregated area in the United States. The message from the Obama campaign through Rev. Wright is that this is acceptable. Simultaneously Obama seems too busy to personally pay attention to change the perception here or in the rest of the State. National TV shows that he is currently doing to brace his campaign is of little value in Lake County.
It is clear though that the Obama campaign does have a lot of throw away money. He cannot be here; but there has been fortunes spend on mailings that are coming from Obama's campaign at the rate of two a day. In Lake County everyone is so used to this that it really is of little electoral consequence; but Hillary's walking door to door here is a Lake County political tradition that does carry weight.
Finally, in the NWI primary, especially Lake County, almost no one votes in the Republican primary, The reason for this is that no one ever runs in the Republican Party in Lake County, because the County is completely controlled by Democrats. On the Republican side there is not a single contested race. What occurs in most primaries is that independents and Republicans will, as usual, vote in the Democratic primary. This will be a good chunk, approximately 25%, of the vote and the majority of it will go to Senator Clinton. When the general election occurs, most of these people will all vote for McCain. Indiana is one of the best states for the voters splitting their ballots in the general election. The president is always Republican and the Congressional delegation is a mixture, even tending toward liberal Democrats.
When I have done polls in the past for local elections I have been amazed at the number of respondents who identified themselves as Democrats but voted for a Republican for president consistently since Ronald Reagan.
Five days out, I would project that Senator Clinton will take Indiana by over 10%. Seeing the disintegration of the Obama campaign in Lake County, a stone's throw from his home, I would further project that Hillary Clinton will beat Obama in North Carolina, or come close enough to count as a win for her. Although this is late to officially change the numbers, it does comport to the fact that Obama is un-electable, and always will be.